According to industry association SEMI, productivity of 200 mm silicon wafers will increase by 14% from 2023 to 2026 inclusive, to a record 7.7 million silicon wafers per month. During this period, 12 new companies will be created and their total number will reach 227.
The driver is the expansion of chip production with sophisticated technical processes, as explained HALF, there will be a growing demand for electric vehicles and charging stations, as well as an increase in the specific chip content in a vehicle due to the development of autopilot systems. New generation power electronics and semiconductors with complex chemical composition will be in demand in this segment. Directly, production of chips for the automotive industry and power electronics will increase by 34% by 2026, according to SEMI representatives.
Microprocessor alignment will result in a 21% increase and MEMS solutions will increase production volume by 16%. Through analog components and contract manufacturing, the core capacity of the 200 mm wafer fabs will each be increased by 8%.
As for the spectrum of lithography technologies, the vast majority of companies in the industry will operate in the 80 to 350 nm range. In the range from 80 to 130 nm, the increase in productivity will be 10%, and in the range from 131 to 350 nm, an increase in enterprise productivity by 18% will be achieved in the forecast interval.
Regionally, Southeast Asia will be the leader in terms of growth rates with 32%, but China, which is second in this criterion (22% growth), will be the leader in terms of additional production capacity in absolute terms. By 2026, China will process up to 1.7 million 200mm silicon wafers per month. In other words, China will be able to achieve a market share of 22% by the end of the forecast period. America (14%), Europe and the Middle East (11%) and Taiwan (7%) will be inferior to Southeast Asian countries and China in terms of core capacity growth rates.
Considering that China will continue to lead this year with a 22% market share, its share will not change until 2026. This year, Japan will capture 16% of the market for chip manufacturing services from 200mm silicon wafers. Behind these two regions are Taiwan (15%), Europe and the Middle East (14%) and America (14%). Geopolitical factors could try to intervene in the balance of power, as there are now many in the US Parliament who want to restrict Chinese manufacturers’ access to technological equipment that allows them to produce even the most advanced chips.