Analytical company TrendForce has shared its forecast regarding the cost of RAM for the coming quarters. According to her, prices for RAM will begin to decline in the fourth quarter of this year, and a tangible drop is expected next year.
TrendForce reports that the three largest DRAM chip suppliers, Samsung, SK hynix and Micron, will increase shipments by 17.9% next year. At the same time, the demand for RAM will grow by 16.3%. It should be noted that even at the current moment the stocks of RAM are quite large, so that the main factor contributing to the reduction in prices will be the lag between supply and demand.
As customers increased their DRAM purchases in the first half of this year in response to supply chain disruptions, DRAM manufacturers were able to deliver better than expected shipments and significantly reduce their inventory. These vendors are now optimistic about the surge in DRAM demand driven by the resurgent server market.
Samsung, as the leading DRAM manufacturer, is expected to show the fastest growth. The company is expected to ship 19.6% more memory chips in 2022 than this year. As for SK hynix, the company is expected to increase its shipments by 17.7%. For Micron, analysts are forecasting 16.3% growth in 2022. As for Taiwanese suppliers, they are expected to make a limited contribution to the growth of the DRAM market next year.
The demand for DRAM modules, according to analysts, will grow by 16.3% in 2022. The largest consumers of DRAM chips are manufacturers of smartphones, servers and laptops. Product launches in all three categories are constrained by a shortage of other components, which means that a skyrocketing demand for DRAM chips is unlikely. TrendForce predicts that DRAM demand among smartphone makers will grow 3.5% next year. This indicator indicates a rather sluggish trend, especially when you consider that in previous years the growth was at least 20%.
DRAM maker revenues are projected to remain flat in 2022 as supply increases offset the overall price decline. As of this year, analysts predict the industry’s total annual revenue will exceed $ 90 billion.