Analyst firm TrendForce believes that memory vendors suffering from an overproduction crisis in 2024 will continue their strategy of reducing production of both DRAM and NAND. Demand for consumer electronics is unlikely to pick up in the first half of 2024, and general purpose server costs will fall due to pressure from AI servers. As a result, the growth rates of DRAM and NAND demand are projected to be 13% and 16%, respectively, in 2024.
In the PC space, average DRAM capacity is expected to grow at about 12.4% annually, mostly due to the new Intel Meteor Lake processors, which will go into mass production later in the year. This platform’s DDR5 and LPDDR5 exclusivity should make DDR5 a key area of growth in the second half of 2024.
The growth rate of client SSD for PC is expected to be 8-10%. Consumer interest is increasingly shifting towards cloud solutions and the demand for laptops with large storage capacities is declining. As 1TB storage models become more affordable, 512GB remains the predominant configuration option.
Suppliers are attempting to maintain price stability through significant production cuts, which could result in PC OEMs having to pay higher costs for SSDs. This, coupled with Microsoft’s increased licensing fees for Windows installs on 1TB drives, should slow further average SSD capacity growth.
The annual growth rate of average server DRAM capacity is estimated at 17.3%. This increase is mainly due to the generation change in server platforms, the needs of cloud providers and the high demands on AI servers.
The estimated annual growth rate for the average enterprise SSD capacity is 14.7%. As for cloud providers, the introduction of PCIe 5.0-capable processors should lead to increased purchases of 8TB drives. At the same time, the contribution of AI servers to this growth will remain very limited.
The annual growth rate of smartphone manufacturing in 2024 is estimated at a modest 2.2%, due in large part to the global economic downturn. In 2023, the average amount of DRAM in smartphones is expected to grow by around 14.3%. Experts predict that this trend will continue in 2024 and lead to an increase in the average storage capacity of mobile devices by another 7.9%.
The growing need for media storage and the increasing adoption of 5G are expected to lead to an increase in the average storage capacity in smartphones. However, in 2024, reduced production of flash storage and smartphone makers’ caution in managing costs could result in fewer mid-range and low-end models with more than 1TB of storage. Given that Apple, which other smartphone makers traditionally aim for, currently has no plans to launch iPhone models with more than 1TB of storage, TrendForce predicts that the average smartphone storage capacity by 2024 will grow by 13%.