Due to the continued oversupply of NAND flash memory the

Due to the continued oversupply of NAND flash memory, the price of SSDs will continue to fall in the third quarter

Even if OEMs continue to implement a strategy to reduce electronics production, it is still not clear whether demand will fall or rise. Analysts expect the NAND memory market to remain oversupplied in Q3 2023 TrendForce.

    Image source: micron.com

Image source: micron.com

Due to weak demand, the cost of finished products in the form of SSDs, as well as eMMC and UFS modules, is likely to continue to fall: the average selling price (ASP) of NAND memory will fall by 3-8% in the third quarter, but the price of NAND Flash wafer could rise. There is also a possibility that prices will normalize again in the fourth quarter, although the stock situation is still preventing the market from normalizing, which will also act as a deterrent even taking into account the seasonal surge in demand in the second half of 2023.

Notebook shipments are expected to recover in Q3 2023, however this factor will not be able to reverse the oversupply in the client SSD market. Some storage vendors have ramped up their marketing efforts in the face of weaker demand, putting pressure on the competition as well. As a result, the average selling price of SSDs will fall 8%-13% in the third quarter.

In the enterprise SSD market, the situation is very different: there is an influx of orders from Chinese government agencies and telecom operators, which means drives are needed for server platforms. But market margins continue to shrink, and some vendors in the NAND market are operating at a loss and prices have fallen below cost. In the enterprise SSD market, ASP is expected to decline by 5-10%.

    Image source: trendforce.com

Image source: trendforce.com

Demand in the eMMC market remains sluggish as low-capacity storage vendors cut prices so much in the second quarter that further price cuts are next to impossible, and prices in this segment are expected to stagnate. Demand for high-performance industrial devices and Chromebooks will be strong, but smartphone makers are taking the bulk of orders for eMMC, meaning high-end prices will continue to fall in Q3, by around 8-13%.

A similar pattern is expected in the UFS segment: smartphone manufacturers will use the low prices to increase component inventories to an acceptable level. Seasonal sales and new smartphone models are expected to be positive factors in the second half of the year, but this is unlikely to boost consumer demand – total shipments of finished products may fall short of expectations and UFS’s average contract price in the third Quarter match will decrease by 8-13%.

Quarterly price increases are only expected for silicon wafers. Stocks of finished products will start to decrease, causing supply and demand in the III. Quarter could be balanced – as a result, TrendForce analysts predict that the average selling price of records will increase by 5%.


About the author

Dylan Harris

Dylan Harris is fascinated by tests and reviews of computer hardware.

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