DRAM prices are projected to fall by up to 23

DRAM prices are projected to fall by up to 23% in the first quarter of 2023

TrendForce analysts have published a forecast for the DRAM memory market in the first quarter of 2023. All types of DRAM memory are expected to fall in price by an average of 13-18% over this period. Vendor pressure remains strong as low demand for home appliances and electronics keeps DRAM inventories low. In order to prevent a sharp drop in prices, many companies like Micron have to cut production.

    Image Source: Laura Ockel / Pixabay

Image Source: Laura Ockel / Pixabay

Analysts expect the average retail price of DDR4 memory for consumers and servers to fall by 15-20% in the first quarter. At the same time, the cost of DDR5 memory drops by 18-23%. PC and laptop makers have reduced DRAM purchases for two consecutive quarters due to low demand for these types of products. Now they have 9-13 weeks of storage available, so analysts don’t expect demand growth to resume.

In the first quarter, DRAM production for computers is expected to decline. Micron has already scaled back production and SK Hynix is ​​expected to follow suit soon. However, the excess of computer memory will still be significant. The three largest manufacturers of DRAM chips are actively lowering the price of DDR5 memory, so the penetration rate in the PC segment is expected to reach almost 20% in the first quarter.

    Image source: TrendForce

Image source: TrendForce

In the server RAM area, the traditionally seasonal decline in demand is expected. Although some companies are already reducing server memory production volumes, this is not enough to effectively contain the decline in the cost of these types of products. The smallest decline is expected in the memory segment for mobile devices. Smartphone manufacturers currently stock an average of 5 to 7 weeks of DRAM, allowing them to sustain current demand. On the other hand, smartphone sales have fallen sharply and analysts do not expect the market to recover to previous levels in the short term. TrendForce estimates that mobile DRAM costs will decrease 10-15% q/q over a three month period.

As for the RAM segment for graphics cards, analysts are forecasting an increase in demand due to the release of graphics cards and laptops with the latest graphics processors. However, overall demand for consumer electronics remains weak, prompting manufacturers to adopt a cautious component sourcing strategy. Analysts expect the average cost of memory modules in this segment to fall 18-23% in the quarter. A similar decline is expected in the consumer DRAM segment.


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Dylan Harris

Dylan Harris is fascinated by tests and reviews of computer hardware.

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