The specialists at Canalys are moderately optimistic about the dynamics of PC sales. In the fourth quarter, the market will return to 5% growth, supported by seasonal trends and some improvement in the macroeconomic situation. Next year, shipments could rise 7.6% to 267 million PCs, but that will largely be determined by the Windows update cycle.
According to experts at Canalys, next year the PC market will finally be able to reach pre-pandemic levels of 2019 in terms of shipment volumes. The market situation will be characterized by the spread of artificial intelligence systems, the impact of which will be felt not only at the level of functionality of operating systems and application software, but also at the level of hardware capabilities of central processors. According to the authors of the forecast, up to 19% of computers shipped in 2024 will be capable of accelerating the operation of artificial intelligence systems. In addition to Windows-compatible PCs, a significant part of this product group will also be Apple laptops based on the latest M family processors.
There will be demand in the commercial segment given the upcoming Microsoft Windows update. In 2025, market sluggishness will still be enough to maintain growth in sales volumes, but in 2026 there will be a further decline and 2027 will be characterized by a stabilization of the PC market, according to Canalys representatives. The retail chain participants they surveyed assume that PC delivery volumes will most likely increase in 2024. At least 47% of respondents expect Windows PC sales to increase by more than 10%, and 22% of respondents expect sales to increase by more than 25%.
The spread of Arm-compatible architecture in the PC market will not be limited to Apple-branded processors next year, as Qualcomm will launch the Qualcomm X Elite processor. The ability to offer customers more energy-efficient laptops will ultimately attract many PC manufacturers to use Qualcomm’s new products.
At the end of this year, according to analysts at Canalys, 248.5 million PCs will be shipped worldwide, which is 12.4% less than last year’s results. Next year, Latin America (12.2%), the Middle East and Africa (11.6%) and the Asia-Pacific region (8.3%) will have the highest growth rates. At the same time, North America and Europe will limit themselves to moderate growth of 7.3 and 7.4%, respectively, and China will be content with 4.3%. This year it will also be the region with the largest decline in PC shipments (18%).