TrendForce specialists shared their own ideas on the development trends of the HBM memory market this year and next. This year there will be a shortage of memory chips of this type, but next year the supply volumes can grow by 105% due to the expansion of production capacities. At the same time, two South Korean manufacturers can increase their market share at the expense of Micron Technology.
Now manufacturers of HBM memory are increasing the production of the corresponding chips, but the lines for packaging them in vertical stacks require 9-12 months for installation and configuration, so a significant increase in the supply of finished products in this area is not expected to occur the second quarter of next year.
Formally, up to three memory generations are on the market at the same time: HBM/HBM2, HBM2e and HBM3. The latter is considered the fourth generation, and the fifth generation of chips called the HBM3e is on the way. The sixth will be HBM4, which Korean companies are already working on. If HBM3 accounted for only 8% of the world market in 2022 and HBM2e an impressive 70%, then the demand for HBM3 from accelerator manufacturers this year will increase the share of this memory generation to 39%. At the same time, the share of HBM2e will drop to 50%. Well, next year the share of HBM3 will grow to 60% and HBM2e will not take more than 25% of the market. Together with rising prices, this will lead to a significant increase in sales for the manufacturers of these memory types.
At the end of 2022, SK hynix controlled 50% of the HBM3 market, thanks in part to NVIDIA supplying this memory. Samsung Electronics settled for 40% of the market and Micron a modest 10%. However, if SK Hynix and Samsung aim for parity at the 46-49% level of the market this year, Micron will have to shrink to 4-6%. According to TrendForce analysts, the share of the latter could drop to 3-5% next year. However, this American company is focused on the development of the HBM3e memory type and therefore could recover in the future. Specifically, this memory will be used by NVIDIA’s recently launched GH200 compute accelerators, which begin shipping in Q2.
According to experts, the prices of HBM2 and HBM2e microcircuits may fall by the end of the current year, since they are less in demand on the market than HBM3. Strong demand for the latter type of memory, combined with high prices, will boost HBM makers’ sales by 127% to $8.9 billion next year. In terms of volume, memory shipments will increase by 105%.